There is of course a lot of debate surrounding the effects of global warming on society but I would like to focus on just one aspect today – homelessness.
I know, as if you didn’t have enough climate anxiety already. But unfortunately, I would like to add another question to the list of reasons to worry about climate change: will rising temperatures and the changing climate increase global homelessness?
There is already a well-established link between temperature and homelessness, with multiple studies finding that over time nations with colder climates have much lower rates of homelessness than warmer climates. In other words, there is a strong positive correlation between temperature and homelessness. Why is that? Well, one reason is necessity – it’s hard to survive multiple nights outside in sub-zero temperatures. Being homeless in cold nations isn’t really an option. And so, nations with low average temperatures, and harsh winters, tend to have very low rates of homelessness. From the first settlement in those areas, there were strong incentives to be indoors and to structure society in such a way as to prevent homelessness.
So, the next question is, as temperatures rise globally and these cold nations start to have more manageable winters, will they see an explosion of homelessness? And will warmer nations also see an increase?
On the surface, the answer is yes. Almost certainly. Climate change brings with it a whole host of increasingly common natural disasters, such as floods and hurricanes. These events tend to destroy as many homes as possible, leaving many homeless. The increasing frequency and harshness of such events lead to an increasing frequency of families and individuals finding themselves without a home. Since these disasters are beginning to occur in places that have never experienced such things, homes might not have insurance (having never needed to), leaving them homeless and without their likely most valuable asset. It’s clear to see why events like these can drive financial ruin and homelessness.
Furthermore, nations nearer the equator will become increasingly inhospitable with rising temperatures. Climate refugees, those that are forced to emigrate due to newly unliveable conditions in their home nation due to climate change (like scorching heat or droughts), are fast becoming one of the most daunting problems the world will face due to climate change. There is generally not much spare cash in the refugee community and emigrating to a new nation without much money can often spell homelessness for some unlucky families.
And so, yes, as we begin to sweat a lot more, many more people will be faced with a life without a home. However, beneath these two more apparent answers, there is another layer that may drive homelessness in the near future: institutions.
The school of institutional economics describes institutions as the structures that organise society. These institutions are constructed a certain way due to historical factors and create the different types of societies we see today. Examples of institutions include strong property rights, honest government and functional judiciaries.
A seminal paper by Acemgolu, Johnson and Robinson (2001) showed that the finding that hotter countries are poorer on average was spurious and that the correlation could be fully described by institutional quality. So, the relationship between temperature and homelessness could be spurious too.
This institutional line of thinking would argue that just because colder nations will get warmer does not mean they will experience homelessness on the same level as their warmer counterparts. This is because these nations have been incentivised for centuries to set up institutions that prevent homelessness and these institutions will arguably not change just due to weather. Homelessness is often not a choice, and so just because it becomes more feasible does not mean communities that are set up to prevent homelessness will suddenly forget how to keep people off the streets.
So, in these instances, the relationship between temperature and homelessness is one of pure correlation and not causation.
Furthermore, another study by Corinth and Lucas (2017) found that while warmer climates have higher rates of homelessness than colder climates, they also have increased variation in homelessness. What this means is that the path is not predestined. Rising temperatures may increase or decrease homelessness, because it may not be temperature over the short term that determines homelessness, but something else (that something else is a whole new question though).
So while, yes, there will be increased homelessness due to climate refugees and catastrophic events and that is something to be very worried about, just because there is a correlation between heat and homelessness does not mean rising temperatures will automatically increase homelessness. However, it will be interesting to see the response of institutional economists if there is a rise in homelessness with temperature, more than just expected from climate refugees and natural disasters. If there is a larger-than-expected increase, this could put a dent in the seemingly robust institutional economics school of thought. This is something to look out for in the near future, and I’ll keep you updated.
I have discussed this all without even mentioning something quite important. The homeless are one of the groups most exposed to climatic events and are at the largest risk of the harmful effects of climate change. Harsher storms and summers and harder to handle without protection. So, if climate change does increase homelessness, it will create a larger group that will be harmed the most, leaving them less able to recover from homelessness. It is worth now and again keeping in my mind the homeless next time you think the change in weather hasn’t been too bad.
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